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A Trial Whose Time Has Come

Yesterday, we hosted our first, and certainly not last, investor day. We had three doctors on stage (two of which were CEOs of our favorite positions), we talked about the Builders (with more to come on that), and launched a new trial that we’re really excited about.

When we read Dr. Phil Tetlock’s Superforecasting, not only did we evolve our framework to incorporate lessons learned, but we also sat up straight upon seeing his response to potential criticism of his colleagues.

From page 207 of Superforecasting, “I can already hear the protests from my colleagues in finance that the only reason the superteams beat the prediction markets was that our markets lacked liquidity: real money wasn’t at stake and we didn’t have a critical mass of traders. They may be right. It is a testable idea, and one worth testing.

Yesterday, with Dr. Tetlock at our investor day, we accepted this challenge. We will be sharing clips from our discussion with Dr. Tetlock in the coming weeks, and the full video replay will be available in the coming days for investors who weren’t able to join us.

Because many of our investors are business builders and fund managers, or some cross between the two, we believe our investors could be something pretty interesting: a superteam with skin in the game. Our superteam has equity on the line, a wealth of experience, well over $100 billion of assets under management, and an eagerness to win. And they are already very well informed through the research we publish.

Our portfolio is not invested in areas where consensus agrees. We look for wide disparities between reality and market illusion, and we believe the odds are stacked in our favor to consistently out-forecast the market. And we are putting our money where our mouth is.

Over the next few months, Phase 1 of our trial will roll out, and our ~200 investors and potential investors will have the opportunity to forecast the most likely path for the fundamentals and valuations of our portfolio companies. We are partnering with Tetlock’s Good Judgement institute and software provider Trefis to make the experience seamless and easy. It will take investors just a few short minutes to set their own views on event probabilities and company KPIs.

Phase 1 will begin next week, and we look forward to opening up one of our favorite names to the public to also test our larger community’s ability to accurately beat the market.

We could hardly be more excited. To steal a favorite phrase of a very famous Builder, as we enter our tenth year as a partnership, we are very much just at day one of an evolutionary process.

We look forward to inviting you to join the evolution.


Disclaimer:

This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the securities or assets mentioned, or to invest in any investment product or strategy related to such securities or assets. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice, and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person or entity that may receive this article. Persons reading this article should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or assets discussed in this article. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research, and the information used in such process was obtained from publicly available sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but such reliability is not guaranteed. Investment accounts managed by GreenWood Investors LLC and its affiliates may have a position in the securities or assets discussed in this article. GreenWood Investors LLC may re-evaluate its holdings in such positions and sell or cover certain positions without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of GreenWood Investors LLC.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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