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Noise, Intuition & Judgement

At our investor day in September, we spoke with Dr. Phil Tetlock about the roles of noise filtering, intuition and game theory in good decision-making. We also kicked off a new Superforecasting trial that we’re conducting with our investors in collaboration with Good Judgement Inc.

Tomorrow we’re excited to throw open one of the companies in our trial, our second largest position, and allow our friends and readers to participate and see what we’re up to. In order to set the stage for tomorrow’s research drop, we’ve put together some highlights of our conversation with Dr. Tetlock in the video here. If you have trouble viewing the video in this page, you can click here to go directly to youtube.


This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the securities or assets mentioned, or to invest in any investment product or strategy related to such securities or assets. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice, and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person or entity that may receive this article. Persons reading this article should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or assets discussed in this article. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research, and the information used in such process was obtained from publicly available sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but such reliability is not guaranteed. Investment accounts managed by GreenWood Investors LLC and its affiliates may have a position in the securities or assets discussed in this article. GreenWood Investors LLC may re-evaluate its holdings in such positions and sell or cover certain positions without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of GreenWood Investors LLC.

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